China Eyes Ethiopia–UAE Axis to Secure Trade Routes Beyond Hormuz

Strategic assessments from China indicate growing interest in strengthening ties between Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates as part of efforts to reshape global trade routes amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, considering it as a strategic pillar for maintaining trade continuity and expanding its geopolitical influence in a rapidly shifting global landscape.

The visit of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to the UAE in March 2026, where he met His Highness President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, is viewed by Chinese strategic circles as a key opportunity to develop alternative trade corridors beyond the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz.

Chinese analysts believe potential disruptions linked to an Iran conflict could threaten global energy flows, prompting Beijing to accelerate plans for diversified supply routes. In this context, ports supported by the UAE in the Horn of Africa, combined with Ethiopia’s push for maritime access, are seen as critical alternatives.

China has recently elevated its relationship with Ethiopia to an “all-weather strategic cooperative partnership,” signaling strong confidence in Addis Ababa as a long-term regional partner aligned with growing Emirati investments in ports and logistics across the Horn of Africa.

The emerging Ethiopia–UAE alignment is viewed as part of a broader Chinese strategy to secure trade and energy corridors, reduce dependence on chokepoints like Hormuz, and strengthen supply chain resilience under the Belt and Road Initiative.

Chinese policy circles are also promoting deeper regional integration through infrastructure projects, including rail links connecting Ethiopia to key ports such as Berbera, enhancing access to global markets.

At the same time, Beijing sees the partnership as a way to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa while counterbalancing Western presence with a strategy including support for technology cooperation, financial systems diversification, and regional development initiatives.

While Chinese analysts warn that instability in the Middle East could still pose risks to investments and supply chains, Beijing has increasingly focused on strengthening alternative corridors and partnerships to safeguard its economic interests.