Congo Poised to Surpass Ethiopia in Sub‑Saharan GDP Rankings

In a recent economic assessment released by the International Monetary Fund, the Democratic Republic of Congo is on track to overtake Ethiopia as the fifth‑largest economy in Sub‑Saharan Africa. The projection, based on 2024 GDP growth estimates, places Congo’s nominal GDP at approximately $70 billion, surpassing Ethiopia’s $65 billion. The shift is expected to take effect by the end of 2025, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook database.

Ethiopia has long been a growth engine in the region, recording an average annual GDP expansion of around 8% over the past decade. However, the country’s growth has recently slowed to 5% in 2023, hampered by inflationary pressures and infrastructure bottlenecks. In contrast, Congo’s economy has been buoyed by a surge in copper and cobalt exports, coupled with the discovery of significant oil reserves, driving its growth to roughly 7% this year. These divergent trajectories have reshaped the economic hierarchy of Sub‑Saharan Africa.

Economic analysts point to several factors underpinning Congo’s ascent. The nation’s mining sector, which accounts for more than 30% of its exports, has attracted substantial foreign direct investment, particularly from Chinese and South Korean firms. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s political landscape has seen heightened tensions and a series of policy shifts that have deterred some investors. Dr. Amanuel Bekele, a senior economist at Addis Ababa University, notes that “Ethiopia’s growth engine is still powerful, but it requires structural reforms to sustain momentum.”

The recalibration of rankings carries significant regional implications. A larger Congo economy could translate into increased demand for regional infrastructure, such as rail links to the port of Mombasa, potentially diverting investment from Ethiopian corridors. Additionally, the shift may influence the allocation of multilateral aid and development funds, with donors recalibrating priorities toward the more rapidly expanding Congolese economy. Ethiopia, meanwhile, may need to intensify efforts to diversify beyond agriculture and textiles.

Looking ahead, observers will monitor policy reforms in both countries. Ethiopia’s upcoming fiscal policy review and potential liberalization of its telecom sector could spark renewed investor confidence. In Congo, the pace of oil development and the management of mining revenues will be critical. Stakeholders will also watch how the two economies navigate the broader challenges of climate change and global commodity price volatility, as these factors will shape the trajectory of Sub‑Saharan Africa’s economic landscape.